Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Sam Stout
John Makdessi
55%
45%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
21-12-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-10
W1
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stout: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Makdessi: 84 sig / 0 TD
Sam Stout
John Makdessi
61
Sig strikes landed
63
172
Sig strikes attempted
142
76
Total strikes landed
63
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
74s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
21-12-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
L2
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
18-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—