Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mark Bocek
Rafael Dos Anjos
41%
59%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
13-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
33-17
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bocek: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Dos Anjos: 54 sig / 4 TD
Mark Bocek
Rafael Dos Anjos
24
Sig strikes landed
28
55
Sig strikes attempted
61
48
Total strikes landed
50
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.8
5.8
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
239s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mark Bocek
13-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W2
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—