Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francis Carmont
Tom Lawlor
78%
22%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
30
26-12
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-6
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Carmont: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Lawlor: 20 sig / 2 TD
Francis Carmont
Tom Lawlor
31
Sig strikes landed
18
57
Sig strikes attempted
34
54
Total strikes landed
30
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
175s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Francis Carmont
"Limitless"
26-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
11-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—