Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
Martin Kampmann
52%
48%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
29
Age
Δ 1y
31
19-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
21-7
W4
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hendricks: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Kampmann: 0 sig / 0 TD
Johny Hendricks
Martin Kampmann
33
Sig strikes landed
34
71
Sig strikes attempted
90
42
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
W3
Martin Kampmann
"The Hitman"
21-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—