Back to UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
🏆 Title fight Main Welterweight

Georges St-Pierre vs Carlos Condit

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Georges St-Pierre
Carlos Condit
76% 24%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
27-2
Career record
Δ 23 pp
33-14
W3
Current streak
W4
3
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
St-Pierre: 71 sig / 7 TD · Condit: 36 sig / 0 TD
Georges St-Pierre
Carlos Condit
70
Sig strikes landed
63
161
Sig strikes attempted
183
116
Total strikes landed
105
4.3
Takedowns landed
0.1
7.1
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
491s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Georges St-Pierre

"Rush"
27-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
W UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
W UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Blue corner
W4

Carlos Condit

"The Natural Born Killer"
33-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
W UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
W UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
W UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin