Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adlan Amagov
Keith Berry
92%
8%
Why
26
Age
Δ 1y
25
14-3-1
Career record
Δ 29 pp
15-15-1
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Amagov: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Berry: 0 sig / 0 TD
Adlan Amagov
Keith Berry
44
Sig strikes landed
30
79
Sig strikes attempted
67
70
Total strikes landed
35
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
116s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Adlan Amagov
"Borz"
14-3-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs. Jard…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 20
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 17
—
Blue corner
L2
Keith Berry
15-15-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
Strikeforce Challengers 18
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 16
—