Prelims1
Catch Weight
DaMarques Johnson vs Gunnar Nelson
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
·Motorpoint Arena Nottingham
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
DaMarques Johnson
Gunnar Nelson
20%
80%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
30
Age
Δ 6y
24
L2
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Johnson: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 9 sig / 1 TD
DaMarques Johnson
Gunnar Nelson
24
Sig strikes landed
41
62
Sig strikes attempted
71
36
Total strikes landed
64
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
125s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
DaMarques Johnson
"Darkness"
15-16
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
24