Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
Prelims1 Middleweight

Tom Watson vs Brad Tavares

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic ·Motorpoint Arena Nottingham
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Tom Watson
Brad Tavares
48% 52%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Watson: 65 sig / 0 TD · Tavares: 83 sig / 5 TD
Tom Watson
Brad Tavares
27
Sig strikes landed
33
63
Sig strikes attempted
77
39
Total strikes landed
51
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
64s
Control time
208s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tom Watson

"Kong"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
W1

Brad Tavares

22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
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