Main
Lightweight
Paul Sass vs Matt Wiman
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
·Motorpoint Arena Nottingham
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Sass
Matt Wiman
75%
25%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
24
Age
Δ 5y
29
15-2
Career record
Δ 25 pp
17-10
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sass: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Wiman: 3 sig / 0 TD
Paul Sass
Matt Wiman
28
Sig strikes landed
31
65
Sig strikes attempted
72
45
Total strikes landed
43
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
113s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
52%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Paul Sass
15-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Wiman
17-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—