Main
Welterweight
John Hathaway vs John Maguire
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
·Motorpoint Arena Nottingham
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
John Hathaway
John Maguire
63%
37%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
69"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
18-2
Career record
Δ 16 pp
25-9
W2
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hathaway: 41 sig / 1 TD ·
Maguire: 13 sig / 1 TD
John Hathaway
John Maguire
30
Sig strikes landed
21
69
Sig strikes attempted
55
60
Total strikes landed
39
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
103s
Control time
231s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
John Hathaway
"The Hitman"
18-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W2
John Maguire
"The One"
25-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—