Main
Welterweight
Che Mills vs Duane Ludwig
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
·Motorpoint Arena Nottingham
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Che Mills
Duane Ludwig
69%
31%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
16-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-15
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mills: 8 sig / 2 TD ·
Ludwig: 2 sig / 0 TD
Che Mills
Duane Ludwig
39
Sig strikes landed
33
99
Sig strikes attempted
73
49
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
55s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Che Mills
"Beautiful"
16-11
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
L2
Duane Ludwig
"Bang"
21-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—