Main
Welterweight
Dan Hardy vs Amir Sadollah
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
·Motorpoint Arena Nottingham
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dan Hardy
Amir Sadollah
84%
16%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
26-10
Career record
Δ 14 pp
7-5
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hardy: 65 sig / 3 TD ·
Sadollah: 61 sig / 0 TD
Dan Hardy
Amir Sadollah
47
Sig strikes landed
37
110
Sig strikes attempted
100
59
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
123s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dan Hardy
"The Outlaw"
26-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
L
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
W1
Amir Sadollah
7-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—