Main
Heavyweight
Stefan Struve vs Stipe Miocic
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
·Motorpoint Arena Nottingham
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Stipe Miocic
74%
26%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
25
Age
Δ 6y
30
34-13
Career record
Δ 8 pp
21-5
W3
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Struve: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Miocic: 48 sig / 1 TD
Stefan Struve
Stipe Miocic
25
Sig strikes landed
25
55
Sig strikes attempted
52
33
Total strikes landed
43
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.5
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
15s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
34-13
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Stipe Miocic
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—