Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
Prelims1 Featherweight

Andy Ogle vs Akira Corassani

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic ·Motorpoint Arena Nottingham
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Andy Ogle
Akira Corassani
60% 40%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ogle: 52 sig / 1 TD · Corassani: 45 sig / 0 TD
Andy Ogle
Akira Corassani
36
Sig strikes landed
35
79
Sig strikes attempted
72
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Andy Ogle

"The Little Axe"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner

Akira Corassani

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30