Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Justin Lawrence
Max Holloway
35%
65%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
22
Age
Δ 2y
21
11-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
28-9
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lawrence: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Holloway: 29 sig / 0 TD
Justin Lawrence
Max Holloway
62
Sig strikes landed
64
156
Sig strikes attempted
163
75
Total strikes landed
67
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
67s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Justin Lawrence
"The American Kidd"
11-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
W1
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—