Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dennis Bermudez
Tommy Hayden
68%
32%
Why
26
Age
Δ 1y
26
18-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
11-4
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bermudez: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Hayden: 6 sig / 0 TD
Dennis Bermudez
Tommy Hayden
34
Sig strikes landed
23
78
Sig strikes attempted
63
58
Total strikes landed
48
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
235s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dennis Bermudez
"The Menace"
18-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tommy Hayden
"Wild Card"
11-4
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—