Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Pague
Chico Camus
43%
57%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 8"
66"
25
Age
Δ 2y
28
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pague: 22 sig / 1 TD ·
Camus: 32 sig / 2 TD
Dustin Pague
Chico Camus
29
Sig strikes landed
32
64
Sig strikes attempted
54
43
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
126s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Pague
"The Disciple"
12-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
Chico Camus
"The King"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28