Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nik Lentz
Eiji Mitsuoka
85%
15%
Why
28
Age
Δ 9y
37
30-13-2
Career record
Δ 7 pp
18-10-2
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lentz: 33 sig / 4 TD ·
Mitsuoka: 5 sig / 0 TD
Nik Lentz
Eiji Mitsuoka
39
Sig strikes landed
26
76
Sig strikes attempted
50
67
Total strikes landed
36
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
200s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-13-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Eiji Mitsuoka
18-10-2
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—