Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ken Stone
Erik Perez
35%
65%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
30
Age
Δ 7y
23
12-4
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-6
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Stone: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Perez: 9 sig / 0 TD
Ken Stone
Erik Perez
10
Sig strikes landed
21
26
Sig strikes attempted
44
20
Total strikes landed
36
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
81s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
51%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ken Stone
12-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Erik Perez
"Goyito"
18-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—