Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Shields
Ed Herman
75%
25%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
32-9-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
28-16
W1
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Shields: 33 sig / 3 TD ·
Herman: 21 sig / 1 TD
Jake Shields
Ed Herman
28
Sig strikes landed
41
90
Sig strikes attempted
92
49
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
162s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Shields
32-9-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
W3
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
28-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—