Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Melvin Guillard
72%
28%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
29
37-17
Career record
Δ 6 pp
33-18-2
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cerrone: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Guillard: 10 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Melvin Guillard
46
Sig strikes landed
36
103
Sig strikes attempted
86
54
Total strikes landed
36
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
49s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
W1
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
33-18-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—