Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Philip De Fries
Oli Thompson
71%
29%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
26
Age
Δ 6y
33
12-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-11
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
De Fries: 35 sig / 2 TD ·
Thompson: 18 sig / 0 TD
Philip De Fries
Oli Thompson
32
Sig strikes landed
21
62
Sig strikes attempted
39
60
Total strikes landed
38
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
215s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Philip De Fries
12-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
L1
Oli Thompson
17-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—