Prelims1
Featherweight
Manvel Gamburyan vs Michihiro Omigawa
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
·Staples Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manvel Gamburyan
Michihiro Omigawa
67%
33%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
31
Age
Δ 5y
37
15-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
17-15-1
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gamburyan: 52 sig / 6 TD ·
Omigawa: 41 sig / 0 TD
Manvel Gamburyan
Michihiro Omigawa
40
Sig strikes landed
37
85
Sig strikes attempted
80
67
Total strikes landed
58
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.4
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
196s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Manvel Gamburyan
"The Anvil"
15-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
Blue corner
L1
Michihiro Omigawa
17-15-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—