Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Josh Grispi
Rani Yahya
47%
53%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 7"
67"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
14-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
28-13-1
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Grispi: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Yahya: 3 sig / 1 TD
Josh Grispi
Rani Yahya
25
Sig strikes landed
30
60
Sig strikes attempted
57
52
Total strikes landed
56
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.9
3.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
222s
Control time
237s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Josh Grispi
"The Fluke"
14-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
L1
Rani Yahya
28-13-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—