Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Swick
DaMarques Johnson
72%
28%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
15-7
Career record
Δ 20 pp
15-16
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Swick: 19 sig / 1 TD ·
Johnson: 17 sig / 2 TD
Mike Swick
DaMarques Johnson
29
Sig strikes landed
29
85
Sig strikes attempted
69
43
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
57s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mike Swick
"Quick"
15-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1
DaMarques Johnson
"Darkness"
15-16
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—