Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cole Miller
Nam Phan
74%
26%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
21-12
Career record
Δ 10 pp
21-18
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Miller: 143 sig / 0 TD ·
Phan: 129 sig / 0 TD
Cole Miller
Nam Phan
88
Sig strikes landed
56
233
Sig strikes attempted
151
89
Total strikes landed
68
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cole Miller
"Magrinho"
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L1
Nam Phan
21-18
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—