Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Jamie Varner
57%
43%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
28-17
Career record
Δ 2 pp
22-11-1
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Lauzon: 44 sig / 2 TD ·
Varner: 82 sig / 2 TD
Joe Lauzon
Jamie Varner
20
Sig strikes landed
26
53
Sig strikes attempted
61
34
Total strikes landed
31
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
128s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joe Lauzon
28-17
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Jamie Varner
22-11-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—