Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Lyoto Machida
Ryan Bader
45%
55%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
24-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
24-5
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Machida: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Bader: 7 sig / 0 TD
Lyoto Machida
Ryan Bader
22
Sig strikes landed
27
44
Sig strikes attempted
52
33
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
90s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—