Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Brandon Vera
78%
22%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
27-15-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
16-7
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Rua: 68 sig / 4 TD ·
Vera: 67 sig / 1 TD
Mauricio Rua
Brandon Vera
31
Sig strikes landed
25
59
Sig strikes attempted
52
53
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
145s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
27-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Brandon Vera
"The Truth"
16-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—