Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Moraga
Ulysses Gomez
75%
25%
Why
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Moraga: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Gomez: 16 sig / 0 TD
John Moraga
Ulysses Gomez
40
Sig strikes landed
34
82
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
173s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
John Moraga
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Ulysses Gomez
"Useless"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29