Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jorge Masvidal
Justin Wilcox
86%
14%
Why
28
Age
Δ 6y
33
35-18
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-8
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Masvidal: 82 sig / 0 TD ·
Wilcox: 48 sig / 2 TD
Jorge Masvidal
Justin Wilcox
56
Sig strikes landed
63
147
Sig strikes attempted
156
80
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
55s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
Strikeforce - Melendez vs. Masv…
—
W
Strikeforce - Overeem vs. Werdum
—
W
Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Hender…
—
Blue corner
L1
Justin Wilcox
"Silverback"
14-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
Strikeforce - Melendez vs. Masv…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 15
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 12
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 7
—