Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Couture
Joe Duarte
74%
26%
Why
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
12-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
11-4
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Couture: 60 sig / 4 TD ·
Duarte: 34 sig / 3 TD
Ryan Couture
Joe Duarte
43
Sig strikes landed
40
113
Sig strikes attempted
95
54
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
3.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
80s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ryan Couture
12-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 19
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 16
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 14
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 10
—
Blue corner
W2
Joe Duarte
11-4
Career record
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Strikeforce Challengers 18
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—