Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jordan Mein
Tyler Stinson
81%
19%
Why
23
Age
Δ 4y
26
31-13
Career record
Δ 3 pp
30-11
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mein: 92 sig / 0 TD ·
Stinson: 56 sig / 1 TD
Jordan Mein
Tyler Stinson
46
Sig strikes landed
39
133
Sig strikes attempted
126
56
Total strikes landed
61
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jordan Mein
"Young Gun"
31-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs. Jard…
—
W
Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Khari…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tyler Stinson
"The Evolution"
30-11
Career record
Height
75"
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs. Jard…
—
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—