Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Pat Healy
Mizuto Hirota
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
W4
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Healy: 45 sig / 4 TD ·
Hirota: 41 sig / 2 TD
Pat Healy
Mizuto Hirota
40
Sig strikes landed
31
93
Sig strikes attempted
72
57
Total strikes landed
50
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
260s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Pat Healy
"Bam Bam"
35-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Khari…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 18
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 14
—
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Werdum
—
Blue corner
Mizuto Hirota
"Pugnus"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31