Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Lorenz Larkin
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
31-16
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-6
W1
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lawler: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Larkin: 50 sig / 1 TD
Robbie Lawler
Lorenz Larkin
30
Sig strikes landed
37
85
Sig strikes attempted
78
32
Total strikes landed
43
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
95s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
31-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs. Jard…
—
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
L
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
—
W
Strikeforce - Henderson vs. Bab…
—
L
Strikeforce - Los Angeles
—
Blue corner
W3
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
18-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
Strikeforce Challengers 19
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 16
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 15
—