Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Keith Jardine
Roger Gracie
41%
59%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
17-12-2
Career record
Δ 18 pp
8-3
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jardine: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Gracie: 35 sig / 3 TD
Keith Jardine
Roger Gracie
32
Sig strikes landed
28
54
Sig strikes attempted
69
33
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Keith Jardine
"The Dean of Mean"
17-12-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs. Jard…
—
D
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley
—
Blue corner
L1
Roger Gracie
8-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
Strikeforce - Barnett vs. Khari…
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Cyborg
—
W
Strikeforce - Heavy Artillery
—