Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tyron Woodley
Nate Marquardt
54%
46%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
W5
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Woodley: 41 sig / 1 TD ·
Marquardt: 59 sig / 1 TD
Tyron Woodley
Nate Marquardt
27
Sig strikes landed
26
45
Sig strikes attempted
60
51
Total strikes landed
43
2.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
6.6
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
238s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs. Jard…
—
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 13
—
W
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Noons 2
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—
Blue corner
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33