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Prelims1 Welterweight

Marcelo Guimaraes vs Dan Stittgen

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman ·SAP Center at San Jose
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Marcelo Guimaraes
Dan Stittgen
61% 39%
Why
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Guimaraes: 63 sig / 0 TD · Stittgen: 49 sig / 1 TD
Marcelo Guimaraes
Dan Stittgen
38
Sig strikes landed
27
69
Sig strikes attempted
63
57
Total strikes landed
40
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
125s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Marcelo Guimaraes

"Magrao"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
L1

Dan Stittgen

"The Anvil"
12-6
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
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