Prelims1
Middleweight
Rafael Natal vs Andrew Craig
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Andrew Craig
66%
34%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
30
Age
Δ 3y
26
22-9-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-4
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Natal: 73 sig / 2 TD ·
Craig: 23 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Natal
Andrew Craig
35
Sig strikes landed
33
89
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
171s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
D
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
W1
Andrew Craig
"Highlight"
10-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—