Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Raphael Assuncao vs Issei Tamura

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman ·SAP Center at San Jose
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Issei Tamura
79% 21%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
63"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
29-10
Career record
Δ 16 pp
11-8
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Assuncao: 39 sig / 0 TD · Tamura: 5 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Issei Tamura
26
Sig strikes landed
25
60
Sig strikes attempted
57
45
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
129s
Control time
220s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Raphael Assuncao

29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
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L UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
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Blue corner
W1

Issei Tamura

11-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—