Prelims1
Flyweight
Chris Cariaso vs Josh Ferguson
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chris Cariaso
Josh Ferguson
57%
43%
Why
31
Age
Δ 7y
24
18-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
10-6
W2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cariaso: 70 sig / 3 TD ·
Ferguson: 20 sig / 1 TD
Chris Cariaso
Josh Ferguson
39
Sig strikes landed
36
76
Sig strikes attempted
82
69
Total strikes landed
59
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.4
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
180s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
18-8
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
L1
Josh Ferguson
"Taz"
10-6
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—