Prelims1
Bantamweight
Damacio Page vs Alex Caceres
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Damacio Page
Alex Caceres
47%
53%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 8"
74"
30
Age
Δ 6y
24
19-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
21-16
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Page: 7 sig / 2 TD ·
Caceres: 9 sig / 0 TD
Damacio Page
Alex Caceres
21
Sig strikes landed
34
40
Sig strikes attempted
65
43
Total strikes landed
54
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
189s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Damacio Page
"The Angel of Death"
19-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—