Main
Bantamweight
TJ Dillashaw vs Vaughan Lee
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Dillashaw
Vaughan Lee
85%
15%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
26
Age
Δ 3y
30
19-5
Career record
Δ 27 pp
15-13-1
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Dillashaw: 3 sig / 2 TD ·
Lee: 8 sig / 0 TD
TJ Dillashaw
Vaughan Lee
31
Sig strikes landed
23
59
Sig strikes attempted
47
59
Total strikes landed
45
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
228s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
TJ Dillashaw
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W1
Vaughan Lee
15-13-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—