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Prelims2 Featherweight

Marcos Vinicius vs Wagner Campos

UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 ·Mineirinho Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marcos Vinicius
Wagner Campos
74% 26%
Why
33
Age
Δ 2y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Vinicius: 28 sig / 0 TD · Campos: 17 sig / 2 TD
Marcos Vinicius
Wagner Campos
38
Sig strikes landed
31
78
Sig strikes attempted
66
55
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
150s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Marcos Vinicius

"Vina"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner

Wagner Campos

"Galeto"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31