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Prelims1 Middleweight

Thiago Perpetuo vs Leonardo Mafra

UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 ·Mineirinho Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Thiago Perpetuo
Leonardo Mafra
45% 55%
Why
24
Age
Δ 1y
23

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Perpetuo: 68 sig / 1 TD · Mafra: 33 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Perpetuo
Leonardo Mafra
34
Sig strikes landed
37
75
Sig strikes attempted
77
48
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
96s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Thiago Perpetuo

"Bodao"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Leonardo Mafra

"Macarrao"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23