Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Teixeira
Hugo Viana
88%
12%
Why
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Teixeira: 52 sig / 1 TD ·
Viana: 65 sig / 0 TD
John Teixeira
Hugo Viana
42
Sig strikes landed
29
84
Sig strikes attempted
67
64
Total strikes landed
36
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
195s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
John Teixeira
"Macapa"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Hugo Viana
"Wolverine"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30