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Prelims1 Middleweight

Delson Heleno vs Francisco Trinaldo

UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 ·Mineirinho Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Delson Heleno
Francisco Trinaldo
55% 45%
Why
35
Age
Δ 1y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Heleno: 3 sig / 0 TD · Trinaldo: 21 sig / 0 TD
Delson Heleno
Francisco Trinaldo
33
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
72
51
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Delson Heleno

"Pe De Chumbo"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner

Francisco Trinaldo

"Massaranduba"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34