Prelims1
Featherweight
Anistavio Medeiros vs Rodrigo Damm
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
·Mineirinho Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anistavio Medeiros
Rodrigo Damm
78%
22%
Why
24
Age
Δ 8y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Medeiros: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Damm: 11 sig / 0 TD
Anistavio Medeiros
Rodrigo Damm
41
Sig strikes landed
34
83
Sig strikes attempted
73
56
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
119s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Anistavio Medeiros
"Gasparzinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Rodrigo Damm
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32