Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Hacran Dias
71%
29%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alcantara: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Dias: 19 sig / 5 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Hacran Dias
35
Sig strikes landed
32
91
Sig strikes attempted
80
57
Total strikes landed
48
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
180s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
36-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
Hacran Dias
"Barnabe"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28