Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Godofredo Pepey
Rony Jason
64%
36%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pepey: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Jason: 36 sig / 0 TD
Godofredo Pepey
Rony Jason
38
Sig strikes landed
35
78
Sig strikes attempted
75
51
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Godofredo Pepey
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Rony Jason
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28